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Downscaling Climate Models: A Sharper Focus on Local-Level Changes

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Research has made it clear that the consequences of climate change and the potential associated health impacts likely will vary depending on geographic location. Many scientists agree that weather variability from climate change is already happening. Downscaling models incorporate specific geographic details into a general circulation model to offer a clearer picture of how local climate may be affected in the future.

Trending Now: Using Social Media to Predict and Track Disease Outbreaks

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Cell phones, social media, and other web-enabled applications have revolutionized the ways information is shared as well as the speed at which it travels, from the house across the street to the house across the globe. Now public health researchers are looking at these rapid information exchange platforms as tools to track, monitor, and predict outbreaks of infectious disease.

Featured Research

Persistent Organic Pollutants and Carotid Atherosclerosis

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Increased circulating levels of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) have been associated with myocardial infarction, an athero­sclerotic disease. Lind et al. investigated the association between level of POPs exposure and atherosclerosis in the population-based Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS) study (n = 1,016 participants 70 years of age). The authors determined the number of carotid artery plaques by ultrasound and measured the thickness and grey scale (IS-GSM) of the intima-media complex. Seven of the POPs (PCB congeners 153, 156, 157, 170, 180, 206, and 209) were positively associated with the number of carotid arteries with plaques. Highly chlorinated PCBs (congeners 194, 206, and 209) were associated with an echolucent IM-GSM. Circulating levels of PCBs were associated with athero­sclerotic plaques and echo­genicity of the intima-media complex. This suggests that POPs may be a risk factor for myo­cardial infarction, but associations need to be confirmed in prospective studies.

Related News Article: Atherosclerosis Predictor? Circulating Levels of POPs Linked to Arterial Effects

Community Asbestos Exposure in Minneapolis, Minnesota, from Libby Vermiculite

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Exposure to asbestos from contaminated vermicu­lite ore from Libby Montana occurred in many processing sites, including a densely populated urban residential neighborhood in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Alexander et al. obtained postero­anterior chest radio­graphs to study the prevalence of pleural abnormalities in community residents who never worked at the plant or lived with a plant worker (n = 461). They estimated cumulative asbestos exposure with air dispersion model data and activity-based exposure estimates for vermiculite processing waste contact. Associations between pleural abnormalities and asbestos exposure were modeled using multiple logistic regression to adjust for year of birth, sex, and potential occupational asbestos exposure. The authors report radiographic evidence of changes in the lung that were consistent with exposure to asbestos. These results indicate that non­occupational exposures to asbestos may potentially be associated with adverse health outcomes.

Related News Article: The Traveling Libby Legacy: Minnesota Community Exhibits Nonoccupational Health Impacts Consistent with Asbestos Damage

Co-benefits from Reduced Car Travel

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Automobile exhaust contains precursors to ozone and fine particulate matter (PM), which are associated with adverse health outcomes. Reliance on commuting by car also reduces physical fitness opportunities. Grabow et al. simulated census-tract level changes in hourly pollutant concentrations from the elimination of automobile round trips ≤ 8 km in 11 metropolitan areas using the Community Multiscale Air Quality model. They then estimated annual changes in health outcomes and monetary costs expected from pollution changes using the Benefits Mapping Analysis Program (BenMAP). The World Health Organization Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) was used to calculate benefits of increased physical activity if 50% of short trips were made by bicycle. The authors estimated that the annual average urban concentrations of PM2.5 would decline by 0.1 µg/m3 
and that summer O3 would increase slightly in cities but decline regionally, resulting in net health benefits of $4.94 billion/year. Across the study region, mortality was predicted to decline by approximately 1,295 deaths/year because of improved air quality and increased exercise. Making 50% of short trips by bicycle would yield savings of approximately $3.8 billion/year from avoided mortality and reduced health care costs. The combined benefits of improved air quality and physical fitness were estimated to exceed $8 billion/year. These findings suggest that significant health and economic benefits are possible if bicycling replaces short car trips. Less dependence on automobiles in urban areas would also improve health in downwind rural settings.

Related News Article: Big Biking Payoff: Alternative Transportation Could Net Midwest over $8 Billion

Manganese and Lead Coexposure and Neurodevelopment

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Claus Henn et al. prospectively studied whether coexposure to manganese and lead in early childhood is associated with neurodevelopmental deficiencies that are more severe than expected based on effects of exposure to each metal alone. Children in an ongoing longitudinal cohort study (n = 455) were enrolled at birth in Mexico City, provided blood samples, and were followed until 36 months of age. Lead and manganese were measured at 12 and 24 months of age, and neurodevelopment was assessed at 6-month intervals from 12 to 36 months of age using Bayley Scales of Infant Development–II. The authors observed evidence of synergism between lead and manganese; lead toxicity was increased among children with high manganese coexposure. The results of this study highlight the importance of understanding health effects of mixed exposures, particularly during potentially sensitive developmental stages such as early childhood.

Related News Article: Mixed Metals Toxicity: More than the Sum of Its Parts?

Cities Prepare Aging Storm Sewers for Climate Change
Linking Epidemiology with Risk Assessment
Enabling Global Access to the Scientific Literature
Bisphenol A and Gene Expression in Vivo
Early-Life Soy Exposure and Gendered Play Behavior
Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Future Undernutrition
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A new generation of climate models examines small areas in detail—in some cases down to 25 square kilometers—with the goal of generating locally relevant projections of long-term weather patterns for regions, states, and cities.

Full 120(1) January 2012 Table of Contents


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Publication of articles in EHP does not mean that the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) condones, endorses, approves, or recommends the use of any products, services, materials, methodology, or policies stated therein. Conclusions and opinions are those of the individual authors and advertisers only and do not reflect the policies or views of the NIEHS.